Former President Donald Trump has his best chance at victory since the end of July, election analyst Nate Silver predicted.
Democrats have seen a surge in optimism since President Joe Biden dropped out of the race in favor of Vice President Kamala Harris in late July, ushering in a series of polls showing their new candidate in the lead. However, this enthusiasm appears to be fading, and Silver sees signs of Trump pulling off a comeback victory in November. His prediction model, updated on Wednesday, has Trump with a 58.2% chance of winning.
“The forecast is still in toss-up range, but Trump’s chances of winning are his highest since July 30,” Silver wrote on his Substack, the Silver Bulletin.
“There’s room to debate the convention bounce stuff, but Harris has been getting a lot of mediocre state polls lately,” he added.
