More Data Confirms Biden's Not-So-Secret 2024 Advantage, and Republicans Need to Take It Seriously

More Data Confirms Biden's Not-So-Secret 2024 Advantage, and Republicans Need to Take It Seriously
Joe Biden by Oliver Contreras is licensed under White House The White House

Looking purely at the recent polling, Donald Trump must be considered current favorite to win November's national election.  We've explored how his felony convictions in New York City have not altered this overall trajectory, which has appeared to favor the challenger for months now.  The oddsmakers and political forecasters seem to agree with this assessment, pegging the 45th president as likelier than not to become the 47th president in various published models.  For what it's worth, I don't put a ton of stock into these models, especially with four-plus months left to go, but they're still worth mentioning.  As of this writing, Trump leads Biden (in RealClearPolitics five-candidate field averages) by nearly five points in Arizona, six points in Georgia, five points in Nevada, five points in North Carolina, and two points in Pennsylvania.  Michigan and Wisconsin are almost exactly tied.  Beyond these 'big seven' battlegrounds, Democrats have at least some cause for concern about an expanding map.  I'm still rather skeptical about Trump's chances in either of these states when all is said and done, but these are averages from late last week, not just single snapshots, as the election year summer gets underway:

Let's put it this way: If Democrats are really sweating Minnesota or Virginia on election night, there's a very good chance Trump will be re-elected.  Based on the head-to-head polling, the incumbent's approval rating, and broad voter sentiments, betting on a Trump victory makes sense.  However.  I will once again return to a fixation I've been writing about for months, based on some fresh data.  As I've been pointing out, Biden enjoys the built-in advantage of 'high propensity' voters favoring his party by a meaningful margin.  The Americans who are absolutely guaranteed to vote now lean decidedly blue.  Democrats also have a well-established and lavishly-funded turnout and ballot operation that will wring every last vote out of their machine, fueled by people for whom voting (often early, by mail) is basically a religious rite.  Republicans, by contrast, are generally skeptical of non-traditional voting methods, and their coalition is increasingly reliant upon 'low propensity,' or haphazard (sometimes at best) voters participating.  Advantage: Democrats.  Public opinion data also shows that many would-be voters are deeply disenchanted with their choices this year:
Joe Biden by Oliver Contreras is licensed under White House The White House
Sign Up For Our Newsletter
© 2024, Conservative Action Alerts, All Rights Reserved
Privacy Policy