Traditionally a Democratic-leaning group, Catholics have increasingly shifted toward the GOP in recent years and that constituency appears likely to prove critical in the key battleground of Pennsylvania, where they constitute nearly a quarter of the population in the narrowly divided state.
Catholics represent roughly 24% of Pennsylvanians, according to the Pew Research Center. With former President Donald Trump currently trailing Vice President Kamala Harris in the Keystone State by just 1.0% on average, bolstering support among Catholics could conceivably hand the state and the White House to Trump. The Senate race, meanwhile, loosely favors incumbent Sen. Bob Casey, D, who leads Republican David McCormick by 4.5% on average.
In 2020, Pennsylvania broke for President Joe Biden, a Catholic, over Trump. It previously backed the Republican in 2016 over Clinton. Now, with the state so narrowly divided, both the Trump campaign and conservative groups seem to see the value in courting Catholic voters.
