Two points of clarification, right out of the gate. First, the word 'now' in the headline question refers to right now -- not necessarily moving forward, or indefinitely. There are reasons to suspect that former President Donald Trump's numbers make a turn for the worse over the coming year, if he's the nominee. We'll consider a few of them below. Second, this is a general election analysis because there's no reason to really examine the question of whether Trump is the frontrunner to be the GOP nominee. He is, far and away, the favorite, and has been for months. Nothing has shifted meaningfully since the early spring, and it's fair to doubt if anything will between now and the flurry of primaries early next year. I'm not entirely foreclosing the possibility of someone other than Trump winning the nomination, but something seismic would need to happen -- beyond, that is, the various significant-to-seismic events that haven't dented Trump up to this point. That reality does not reflect my preference at all, for reasons Ive explained on numerous occasions, but sound analysis must be rooted a clear look at how things really are, not hopeful wish-casting. Barring something enormous, it's going to be Trump.
Which brings us to the issue of whether Trump, right now, is favored to win the 2024 election. As in, if the election were being held in a few weeks, as opposed to 13-plus months from now, would he be the likeliest victor at this moment? My inclination is that the answer is 'yes.' The polling shows a very competitive race between Trump and President Joe Biden, both nationally and in key states. The current Real Clear Politics average shows an exact tie, as of Thursday evening, down to the decimal point. 43.9 percent each. If the final result is approximately tied next fall, there's a very good chance Trump will capture the electoral college. A few recent surveys show Biden up by a nose, or a deadlock. Marist/NPR shows Biden up three points, and expanding his lead if Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. runs as an independent. That sample is D+7, which seems a bit too blue. CNBC's new numbers, with a faint red tint in terms of the sample, have Trump ahead by four points:
CNBC poll
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) October 20, 2023
Biden approve/dis: (36/58)
Biden economic rating: (33/63)
Biden foreign policy: (31/60)
Important to secure border w/ Mexico?
51% very important
21% somewhat important
(72% total 'important')
2024 rematch (w/ leaners):
Trump 46%
Biden 42%https://t.co/9LQjx1KFb1
